As the official tally is out and the NDA has crossed the majority mark, it’s crucial to analyze the results of the recent elections. The NDA has seen a significant dip in its total count from the 2019 elections, with reduced winning margins. This article will delve into what led to their defeat in Faizabad (Ayodhya) and what went wrong overall. Was it the influence of Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, or were there other factors at play?

A Win is a Win?

Many argue that a win is a win, whether by one vote or by one lakh votes. However, considering the previous elections, where the BJP was well over the 300 mark and now stands at 240, there’s a noticeable 20% dip. What could be the reason for this decline? Here are some potential factors:

1. Overconfidence: Did the BJP become too complacent?
2. No Face Except Modi: Is there a lack of prominent leaders apart from Modi?
3. Voter Turnout: Did voters simply not come out to vote?
4. Lack of Hindu Unity: Were the Hindu voters not united?
5. Overconfidence Among Supporters: Were BJP supporters too sure of their victory, leading to lower voter turnout?
6. EVM Hacking Allegations: Were there concerns about the integrity of the voting process?
7. Role of Caste Census: How did caste dynamics affect the results?
8. Incompetent Ministers: Are some ministers in the ministry not performing up to par?

Overconfidence and Overlooking Local Leaders

The BJP’s slogan of “Abki Baar 400 Par” seemed unrealistic and unattainable, and they underestimated the I.N.D.I Alliance. The BJP’s decision to team up with Ajit Pawar, despite previous allegations of corruption against him, sent mixed signals to the electorate. Dr. Anand Ranganathan aptly described the BJP as a “Dhobi Ghat” just before the alliance with Ajit Pawar in Maharashtra, illustrating the party’s inconsistent stance.

The BJP also overlooked their local leaders, opting instead to give tickets to newcomers and those who had previously criticized the party. This strategy backfired in many cases. For instance, Maharani Parneet Kaur, Ravneet Bittu, and Rinku Singh were given tickets despite their contentious histories with the BJP.

The Modi Factor

It’s all Modi or none. After ten long years, the BJP has not been able to groom a single face to potentially replace Modi. Yogi Adityanath is often seen as a potential successor, but reports suggest a rift between him and the central leadership. Vaibhav Singh’s tweet encapsulates this sentiment: “A politician from UP told me that he approached Yogi Adityanath for a Lok Sabha ticket. Yogi told him, ‘If I recommend you for a ticket, you’ll definitely not get the ticket from leadership in Delhi.’“

Voter Dynamics and Election Results

The claim that voters didn’t come out to vote is flawed. While there was a marginal decline in voter turnout, it was not substantial enough to explain the shift in results. The rise in seats won by Congress and its alliance indicates that BJP supporters were overly confident about their victory. The phrase “Aayega to Modi hi” (If anyone comes, it will be Modi) reflects this overconfidence, leading to a decrease in active voter participation.

The Role of Caste and Religion

The loss in Faizabad (Ayodhya), despite the construction of the Shri Ram Mandir, suggests that religious achievements alone do not guarantee political success. The BJP underestimated the electorate’s perception, where voters distinguished between religious matters and political support. Additionally, the caste census played a significant role in shaping the electoral outcomes. The I.N.D.I Alliance leveraged caste dynamics effectively, dividing the electorate along caste lines.

Incompetent Ministers and Ignored Issues

Some cabinet ministers have been perceived as incompetent, such as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Her responses, or lack thereof, to pressing questions have drawn criticism. For example, her statement, “I don’t eat onions,” when questioned about rising onion prices, was seen as dismissive and out of touch with the electorate’s concerns.

Congress Still Lost

Despite the reduced majority for the BJP, let’s not overlook the elephant in the room: Congress, led by the ever-charismatic Rahul Gandhi, still managed to lose. Yes, they and their allies might be popping champagne and celebrating what they perceive as a monumental achievement, but the reality is far from it. The NDA’s reduced count does not translate into a victory for Congress. It’s akin to a student failing with a slightly better grade than last time and throwing a party for it. The I.N.D.I Alliance might have gained more seats, but they did not secure enough to form a government. So, while the BJP needs to introspect and address its shortcomings, let’s not kid ourselves about who really came out on top here.

Recommendations for the BJP

Moving forward, the BJP needs to address several key areas:

1. Grooming New Leaders: Start preparing a new generation of leaders capable of taking over from Modi. It is crucial to have a succession plan in place to maintain party stability and continuity.
2. Fact-Checking and Countering Propaganda: Establish an in-house fact-check team to handle propagandists like Dhruv Rathi, Akash Banerjee, and Ravish Kumar. This team should proactively address misinformation and present factual counterarguments to maintain the party’s credibility.
3. Focus on Achievements, Not History: Highlight the BJP’s achievements rather than continuously blaming past leaders like Nehru and Gandhi. Voters want to hear about what has been accomplished and future plans, not a rehash of historical grievances.
4. Strategic Use of Religious Symbols: Avoid overusing the Shri Ram Mandir issue in political conversations. The religious sentiment has been acknowledged, and now it’s time to focus on developmental and governance issues.
5. Support Local Leaders: Prioritize local leaders who genuinely support the party’s ideology. Local leadership needs to be empowered and given the responsibility to lead and represent the party effectively in their regions.
6. Avoid Contradictory Alliances: Be consistent in political alliances to avoid appearing opportunistic. The alliance with Ajit Pawar, despite past corruption allegations, created confusion and mistrust among voters. A clear and principled stance on alliances is necessary.
7. Strengthen the IT Cell: Improve the party’s digital and social media strategies to effectively counter misinformation and engage with the electorate. The IT cell should be dynamic, responsive, and focused on positive campaigning.
8. Support Loyal Members: Show support for party members who align with the BJP’s core values and have been loyal to the party. The case of Nupur Sharma is a pertinent example. When party members face backlash for their statements, the leadership should evaluate the context and support them if they are in line with the party’s ideology, rather than abandoning them.

In the words of Atal Bihari Vajpayee,

सरकारें आएंगी, जाएंगी, पार्टियां बनेंगी, बिगड़ेंगी मगर ये देश रहना चाहिए

Atal Bihari Vajpayee

Congratulations to the NDA on forming the government yet again. We have great expectations for the coming years and hope to see significant achievements, upliftment of the poor, and relief for servicemen. Let’s hope this term brings unprecedented growth and prosperity, with a stronger, more unified party ready to tackle future challenges.